SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Borussia Dortmund travel to Waldstadion Kaiserlinde to take on SV Elversberg in Bundesliga (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
SV Elversberg — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SV Elversberg's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — SV Elversberg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Borussia Dortmund are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for SV Elversberg, 1 for Borussia Dortmund and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Nov 2026, ended SV Elversberg 1–2 Borussia Dortmund — a Borussia Dortmund win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Elversberg 58% versus Borussia Dortmund 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 63% | Borussia Dortmund 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.59 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 1.245 / defence 1.143 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.038 / defence 0.673. League average goals — home 1.898 / away 1.358. Borussia Dortmund bring a tight defence (rating 0.673, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling SV Elversberg's projected output down. Data: built from SV Elversberg's last 9 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 43.
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 38% | Draw 23% | Borussia Dortmund 39%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 2.64 | Draw 4.27 | Borussia Dortmund 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.59 / 1.61) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SV Elversberg's last 10 home games and Borussia Dortmund's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SV Elversberg 70% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Dortmund 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 26 | Venue: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 38% | Draw 23% | Borussia Dortmund 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG SV Elversberg 1.59 / Borussia Dortmund 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 1.245 / def 1.143 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.038 / def 0.673 | league avg home 1.898 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Borussia Dortmund xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund FAQs
What time does SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
Where is SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 26) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 38% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SV Elversberg and Borussia Dortmund will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SV Elversberg's attack rating (1.25) and Borussia Dortmund's defence rating (0.67), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus SV Elversberg's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SV Elversberg's last 9 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
38%
2.64
23%
4.27
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
3.20
1.61
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.64
38%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
8%
13.25
8%
12.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.4 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.61 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, SV Elversberg have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 22W 9D 12L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 28W 10D 5L from 43 games, 2.19 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SV Elversberg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SV Elversberg have posted 2.19 PPG from their last 21 home games (14W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — SV Elversberg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 11W 7D 3L from their last 21 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.00 scored and 0.95 conceded. SV Elversberg's scoring rate against Borussia Dortmund's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
SV Elversberg (Home) vs Borussia Dortmund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Elversberg
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund Form FAQs
What form are SV Elversberg and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 22W 9D 12L in their last 43 games (1.74 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 28W 10D 5L in their last 43 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
SV Elversberg's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 2.19 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.90 PPG.
Have SV Elversberg or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Elversberg have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 1 H2H match in our data, going back to November 2026. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 1 Meetings
0
SV Elversberg
0
Draws
1
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and Borussia Dortmund?
Across the 1 head-to-head match in our data, SV Elversberg have won 0, Borussia Dortmund have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 SV Elversberg.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 1 head-to-head match in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 57%, Borussia Dortmund 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for SV Elversberg and 52% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Borussia Dortmund in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Elversberg vs Borussia Dortmund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Elversberg and Borussia Dortmund matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of SV Elversberg's games and 57% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Elversberg and Borussia Dortmund matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of SV Elversberg's matches and 52% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do SV Elversberg and Borussia Dortmund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 71% of Borussia Dortmund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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