SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SV Darmstadt 98 face VfL Wolfsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 and VfL Wolfsburg meet at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor in Bundesliga (matchday 15). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 December 2023 at 14:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
SV Darmstadt 98 have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VfL Wolfsburg's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for SV Darmstadt 98, 0.70 for VfL Wolfsburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 home games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 away games) — SV Darmstadt 98 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, VfL Wolfsburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
SV Darmstadt 98 — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
VfL Wolfsburg — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 54% versus VfL Wolfsburg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 54% | VfL Wolfsburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.67 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.684 / defence 1.340 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.829 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.894 / away 1.397. SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating of 0.684 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.67. VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating of 1.286 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SV Darmstadt 98's projected output up. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 1.340 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing VfL Wolfsburg's projected output up. Data: built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 14 games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 48.
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 39% | Draw 27% | VfL Wolfsburg 34%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.56 | Draw 3.73 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.93. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.67 / 1.55) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 home games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SV Darmstadt 98 60% (last 10 home games) | VfL Wolfsburg 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 15 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 16 December 2023 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 39% | Draw 27% | VfL Wolfsburg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.67 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.684 / def 1.340 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.829 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.894 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.55
VfL Wolfsburg xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg FAQs
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
SV Darmstadt 98 0 - 1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 15) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 39% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and VfL Wolfsburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 0.68x the league average against VfL Wolfsburg's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VfL Wolfsburg's attack (0.83x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 14 games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
39%
2.56
27%
3.73
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.22
1.55
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
8%
12.10
6%
15.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.55 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Darmstadt 98's recent record stands at 22W 10D 16L from 48 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five.
VfL Wolfsburg, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 19L across 48 games — 1.35 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for SV Darmstadt 98 against 1.35 for VfL Wolfsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SV Darmstadt 98 have managed 12W 7D 5L from their last 24 home games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfL Wolfsburg's away record stands at 8W 3D 13L across their last 24 away games, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.56 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98 (Home) vs VfL Wolfsburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg Form FAQs
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 22W 10D 16L in their last 48 games (1.58 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 18W 11D 19L in their last 48 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.79 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 3 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. They cover more than one competition — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
VfL Wolfsburg have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfL Wolfsburg won VfL Wolfsburg 5-1 SV Darmstadt 98 on 18 Sep 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Last 3 Meetings
0
SV Darmstadt 98
0
Draws
3
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and VfL Wolfsburg?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: VfL Wolfsburg 5-1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 58%, VfL Wolfsburg 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 54% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; VfL Wolfsburg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Wolfsburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Darmstadt 98 and VfL Wolfsburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 42% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SV Darmstadt 98 and VfL Wolfsburg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent games and 54% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and VfL Wolfsburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 71% of VfL Wolfsburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfL Wolfsburg defy the odds to beat SV Darmstadt 98 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.67 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.55 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.68 / defence 1.34 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.83 / defence 1.29, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 39% | Draw 27% | VfL Wolfsburg 34%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual VfL Wolfsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 54%, VfL Wolfsburg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.58 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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