Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-2 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Werder Bremen travel to BORUSSIA-PARK to take on Borussia Mönchengladbach. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 December 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 5W 1D 4L at BORUSSIA-PARK — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Werder Bremen — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.40 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 2, Werder Bremen 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Werder Bremen trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 65% and Werder Bremen 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Mönchengladbach 71% | Werder Bremen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.12 xG and Werder Bremen 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.992 / defence 0.899 | Werder Bremen attack 0.839 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.896 / away 1.387. Data: 48 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 48 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | Draw 23% | Werder Bremen 16%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Werder Bremen 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Mönchengladbach (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% | Werder Bremen 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Friday 15 Dec 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | Draw 23% | Werder Bremen 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.12 / Werder Bremen 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.992 / def 0.899 | Werder Bremen attack 0.839 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.896 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Werder Bremen xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 15 December 2023 at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 2 - 2 Werder Bremen.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 60% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen?
Record (4 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 2W | Draws 1 | Werder Bremen 1W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack at 0.99x the league average against Werder Bremen's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
60%
1.66
23%
4.26
16%
6.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.17
1.05
Werder Bremen xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
6.19
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
12%
8.35
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
2%
51.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.05 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 15W 14D 19L from 48 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 14W 8D 26L across 48 games — 1.04 PPG, with D-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.23 PPG, Werder Bremen on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 12W 4D 7L from 23 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Borussia Mönchengladbach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 5W 5D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.48 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Werder Bremen in 62%.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 15W 14D 19L in their last 48 games (1.23 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 14W 8D 26L in their last 48 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Werder Bremen away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.74 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Werder Bremen won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting Werder Bremen specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4
Draws
2
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 4, Werder Bremen have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Werder Bremen 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 48%, Werder Bremen 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 61% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 26% of games; Werder Bremen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 65% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 61% of Werder Bremen's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen finished level at 2-2 at BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.12 xG and Werder Bremen 1.05 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Werder Bremen outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.99 / defence 0.90 against Werder Bremen attack 0.84 / defence 1.13, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | Draw 23% | Werder Bremen 16%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 71%, Werder Bremen 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.23 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.