SC Paderborn 07 vs Werder Bremen – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs Werder Bremen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 23 as SC Paderborn 07 welcome Werder Bremen to Home Deluxe Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 February 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 6W 3D 1L at Home Deluxe Arena — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Werder Bremen stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Werder Bremen have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, Werder Bremen 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 3–4 with Werder Bremen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games).
Werder Bremen in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 63% versus Werder Bremen 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 60% | Werder Bremen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.85 xG and Werder Bremen 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Werder Bremen attack 0.905 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.339. Data: 1 SC Paderborn 07 games / 35 Werder Bremen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 47% | Draw 25% | Werder Bremen 28%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Werder Bremen 3.57. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 100% | Werder Bremen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 47% | Draw 25% | Werder Bremen 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.85 / Werder Bremen 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Werder Bremen attack 0.905 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.939 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Werder Bremen xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Werder Bremen kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Werder Bremen is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Home Deluxe Arena.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Werder Bremen part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 47% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Werder Bremen?
Record (2 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 1W | Draws 0 | Werder Bremen 1W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Werder Bremen in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SC Paderborn 07's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Werder Bremen's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
47%
2.11
25%
4.07
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.24
1.39
Werder Bremen xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
12%
8.50
4%
22.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.39 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 18W 9D 8L from 35 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 19L across 35 games — 0.91 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Paderborn 07 by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Werder Bremen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Paderborn 07 have managed 10W 3D 4L from 17 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 3W 4D 10L across 17 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.09 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
Werder Bremen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 18W 9D 8L in their last 35 games (1.80 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 8W 8D 19L in their last 35 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Werder Bremen away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.94 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 0.76 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or Werder Bremen been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Werder Bremen in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Paderborn 07 and Werder Bremen runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SC Paderborn 07
0
Draws
1
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Werder Bremen?
From 2 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, Werder Bremen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when SC Paderborn 07 3-4 Werder Bremen.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 82%, Werder Bremen 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for SC Paderborn 07 and 53% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 47% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 53% of Werder Bremen's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.