SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen make the trip to Europa-Park Stadion to face SC Freiburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 February 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Europa-Park Stadion, SC Freiburg have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bayer Leverkusen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SC Freiburg register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Bayer Leverkusen in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 10 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to SC Freiburg's 2, with 3 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.9 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 63% and Bayer Leverkusen 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 66% | Bayer Leverkusen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.46 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.210 / defence 0.962 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.089 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.339. Data: 35 SC Freiburg games / 35 Bayer Leverkusen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 60% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 20%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | Bayer Leverkusen 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.86. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.86 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SC Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 80% | Bayer Leverkusen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 60% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 70% | xG SC Freiburg 2.46 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.210 / def 0.962 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.089 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.939 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Bayer Leverkusen xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Europa-Park Stadion.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 60% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (10 meetings): SC Freiburg 2W | Draws 3 | Bayer Leverkusen 5W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (1.21) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 2.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.09x) against SC Freiburg's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 3-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
60%
1.67
20%
5.00
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.86
1.40
Bayer Leverkusen xG
1.67
60%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.29
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
9%
11.65
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
2%
58.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.40 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.86.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Freiburg come into this having played 35 games, going 14W 8D 13L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen sit at 1.69 PPG from 35 outings (17W 8D 10L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.69 for Bayer Leverkusen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SC Freiburg's home form reads 10W 5D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — SC Freiburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have taken 1.56 points per game from 18 outings (8W 4D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.00 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 66%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Early Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 14W 8D 13L in their last 35 games (1.43 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 17W 8D 10L in their last 35 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.94 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-1 on 21 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
SC Freiburg
3
Draws
5
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 2, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when SC Freiburg 3-3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for SC Freiburg, 67% for Bayer Leverkusen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for SC Freiburg and 67% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of SC Freiburg's games and 67% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of SC Freiburg's matches and 67% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.