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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as SC Paderborn 07 defy the odds to beat VfL Wolfsburg 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 beat VfL Wolfsburg 2-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Final, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.74 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.80 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.06 / defence 1.16, drawn from 0/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 38% | Draw 23% | VfL Wolfsburg 40%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 60%, VfL Wolfsburg 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights