🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Home Deluxe Arena plays host to SC Paderborn 07 versus VfL Wolfsburg in Bundesliga, Final. Kick-off: Monday 25 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

SC Paderborn 07 at Home Deluxe Arena this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

VfL Wolfsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

VfL Wolfsburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for SC Paderborn 07, 1.00 for VfL Wolfsburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SC Paderborn 07 register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, VfL Wolfsburg in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SC Paderborn 07 0W, VfL Wolfsburg 0W, 1D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).

VfL Wolfsburg — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 66% and VfL Wolfsburg 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 60% | VfL Wolfsburg 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.74 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.064 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.758 / away 1.470. Data: 0 SC Paderborn 07 games / 68 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 38% | Draw 23% | VfL Wolfsburg 40%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.63 | Draw 4.35 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is VfL Wolfsburg at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 80% | VfL Wolfsburg 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights