SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 33 as SC Paderborn 07 welcome Union Berlin to Home Deluxe Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 May 2027 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Home Deluxe Arena, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Berlin stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SC Paderborn 07 at 1.60 PPG versus Union Berlin's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games).
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 63% and Union Berlin 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 60% | Union Berlin 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.66 xG and Union Berlin 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Union Berlin attack 0.980 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.339. Data: 1 SC Paderborn 07 games / 35 Union Berlin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 41% | Draw 25% | Union Berlin 34%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Union Berlin 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 100% | Union Berlin 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2027, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 41% | Draw 25% | Union Berlin 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.66 / Union Berlin 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Union Berlin attack 0.980 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.939 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Union Berlin xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Saturday 15 May 2027 at Home Deluxe Arena.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 41% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Union Berlin in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (0.86) and Union Berlin's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
41%
2.47
25%
3.93
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.17
1.51
Union Berlin xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
9%
11.15
6%
15.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.5 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.51 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 35 games, going 18W 9D 8L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Union Berlin sit at 1.14 PPG from 35 outings (10W 10D 15L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 10W 3D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Berlin have taken 1.00 points per game from 17 outings (5W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.34 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Union Berlin in 63%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
Union Berlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 18W 9D 8L in their last 35 games (1.80 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 10W 10D 15L in their last 35 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Union Berlin away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.94 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.00 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 20%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Paderborn 07 at 82%, Union Berlin at 53%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for SC Paderborn 07 and 53% for Union Berlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 53% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 53% of Union Berlin's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Union Berlin tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.