🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Union Berlin at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Borussia Mönchengladbach travel to to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 May 2027, 14:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Union Berlin — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Union Berlin haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Union Berlin have posted 3W 4D 3L at — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Borussia Mönchengladbach haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Union Berlin at 1.10 PPG versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Union Berlin have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 10 past contests while Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed just 3 wins.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning.

The historical record gives Union Berlin a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 62% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 62% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.81 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.977 / defence 1.013 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.864 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.822 / away 1.468. Data: 34 Union Berlin games / 34 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Union Berlin 50% | Draw 23% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 27%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.70. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights