SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host SV Elversberg at Home Deluxe Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 December 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Home Deluxe Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Elversberg stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Elversberg's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SC Paderborn 07 at 1.30 PPG versus SV Elversberg's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SC Paderborn 07 register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, SV Elversberg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for SC Paderborn 07, 3 for SV Elversberg and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 1–5 with SV Elversberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 57% versus SV Elversberg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 57% | SV Elversberg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.46 xG and SV Elversberg 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.664 / defence 0.956 | SV Elversberg attack 0.751 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.898 / away 1.375. SC Paderborn 07's attack strength of 0.664 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 SC Paderborn 07 games / 8 SV Elversberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 47% | Draw 28% | SV Elversberg 25%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | SV Elversberg 4.00. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: SC Paderborn 07 70% | SV Elversberg 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 47% | Draw 28% | SV Elversberg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.46 / SV Elversberg 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.664 / def 0.956 | SV Elversberg attack 0.751 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.898 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
0.99
SV Elversberg xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Home Deluxe Arena.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 47% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg?
Record (6 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 2W | Draws 1 | SV Elversberg 3W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. SV Elversberg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 0.66x the league average against SV Elversberg's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Elversberg's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.63
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.45
0.99
SV Elversberg xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
6%
17.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 0.99 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 20W 11D 11L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Elversberg's form line: 22W 9D 11L from 42 games, 1.79 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for SV Elversberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.69 PPG, SV Elversberg on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.86 PPG from 21 outings (12W 3D 6L).
On the road, SV Elversberg have gone 8W 5D 8L from 21 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Elversberg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.90 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 20W 11D 11L in their last 42 games (1.69 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 22W 9D 11L in their last 42 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or SV Elversberg away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.86 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.38 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or SV Elversberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SV Elversberg in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SV Elversberg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2026, when SV Elversberg won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting SV Elversberg specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
3
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg?
From 6 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, SV Elversberg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when SV Elversberg 5-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 71%, SV Elversberg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (SC Paderborn 07) and 52% (SV Elversberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play SV Elversberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 57% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 52% of SV Elversberg's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, SV Elversberg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.