SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05 – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host FSV Mainz 05 at Home Deluxe Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 January 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07 at Home Deluxe Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.
FSV Mainz 05 — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FSV Mainz 05 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SC Paderborn 07 at 1.30 PPG versus FSV Mainz 05's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SC Paderborn 07 register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SC Paderborn 07 have won 0, FSV Mainz 05 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
FSV Mainz 05 in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 61% versus FSV Mainz 05 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 58% | FSV Mainz 05 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.10 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.637 / defence 1.087 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.015 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.981 / away 1.344. SC Paderborn 07's attack strength of 0.637 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 SC Paderborn 07 games / 35 FSV Mainz 05 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 27% | Draw 28% | FSV Mainz 05 45%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | FSV Mainz 05 2.22. FSV Mainz 05 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FSV Mainz 05 at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 90% | FSV Mainz 05 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 27% | Draw 28% | FSV Mainz 05 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.10 / FSV Mainz 05 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.637 / def 1.087 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.015 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.981 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.48
FSV Mainz 05 xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05 is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Home Deluxe Arena.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 27% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (1 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 0W | Draws 1 | FSV Mainz 05 0W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FSV Mainz 05 in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (0.64) and FSV Mainz 05's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FSV Mainz 05's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
27%
3.70
28%
3.59
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.58
1.48
FSV Mainz 05 xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
6%
16.31
15%
6.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.48 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 18W 9D 9L from 36 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 14L across 36 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Paderborn 07 by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FSV Mainz 05 heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SC Paderborn 07 have managed 10W 3D 5L from 18 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FSV Mainz 05's away record stands at 7W 5D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.36 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 18W 9D 9L in their last 36 games (1.75 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 11W 11D 14L in their last 36 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.83 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.44 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or FSV Mainz 05 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FSV Mainz 05 in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
0
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FSV Mainz 05?
From 1 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 0, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 0-0 SC Paderborn 07.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Paderborn 07 at 78%, FSV Mainz 05 at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for SC Paderborn 07 and 67% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 61% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 67% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.