SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction & Preview

Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Mönchengladbach meet at Home Deluxe Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 March 2027 at 14:30 UK time.

Current Form

SC Paderborn 07's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

SC Paderborn 07's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. SC Paderborn 07's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Borussia Mönchengladbach's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 away games) — SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 31 Oct 2026, ended SC Paderborn 07 0–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

SC Paderborn 07 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 43 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).

Borussia Mönchengladbach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 43 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 58% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 58% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%). Note also that Borussia Mönchengladbach surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while SC Paderborn 07 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.69 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.713 / defence 1.031 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.940 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.898 / away 1.358. SC Paderborn 07's attack rating of 0.713 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.69. Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence rating of 1.245 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SC Paderborn 07's projected output up. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 9 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 43.

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 46% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 30%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.17 | Draw 4.19 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.33. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.69 / 1.32) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 70% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% (last 10 away games).

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