SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Mönchengladbach meet at Home Deluxe Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 March 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
SC Paderborn 07's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07's home record at Home Deluxe Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
SC Paderborn 07 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
Borussia Mönchengladbach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 60% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 60% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.91 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.806 / defence 1.014 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.711 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 2.006 / away 1.400. Data: 4 SC Paderborn 07 games / 38 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 58% | Draw 23% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 19%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 5.26. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 90% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 58% | Draw 23% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.91 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.806 / def 1.014 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.711 / def 1.183 | league avg home 2.006 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Home Deluxe Arena.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 58% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (0.81) and Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack (0.71x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.32
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.92
1.01
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
15%
6.77
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
3%
35.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.01 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 19W 9D 10L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 9W 11D 18L from 38 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, SC Paderborn 07 are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Borussia Mönchengladbach.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.89 PPG from 19 outings (11W 3D 5L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 5D 11L from 19 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.26 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 19W 9D 10L in their last 38 games (1.74 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 9W 11D 18L in their last 38 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.89 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.74 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or Borussia Mönchengladbach been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 34%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 79%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for SC Paderborn 07 and 58% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 42% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 58% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.