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Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out Werder Bremen 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Freiburg beat Werder Bremen 1-0 at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.91 xG and Werder Bremen 0.96 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SC Freiburg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Werder Bremen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.12 / defence 0.90 against Werder Bremen attack 0.73 / defence 1.05, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 58% | Draw 25% | Werder Bremen 17%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 67%, Werder Bremen 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Werder Bremen's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.52 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights