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Dominant SC Freiburg run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Werder Bremen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Freiburg beat Werder Bremen 5-0 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.87 xG and Werder Bremen 1.41 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. SC Freiburg beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Werder Bremen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.05 / defence 0.94 against Werder Bremen attack 1.09 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 47% | Draw 25% | Werder Bremen 28%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 64%, Werder Bremen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Werder Bremen's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.39 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights