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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as SC Freiburg defy the odds to beat VfL Wolfsburg 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Freiburg beat VfL Wolfsburg 3-2 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.55 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.92 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SC Freiburg beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.02 / defence 0.93 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.39 / defence 0.92, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 29% | Draw 26% | VfL Wolfsburg 44%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual SC Freiburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 64%, VfL Wolfsburg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.34 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights