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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SC Freiburg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over VfB Stuttgart.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Freiburg beat VfB Stuttgart 3-1 at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.59 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.82 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SC Freiburg beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VfB Stuttgart landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.95 / defence 1.19 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.03 / defence 1.00, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 33% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 43%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual SC Freiburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 69%, VfB Stuttgart 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.53 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights