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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat SC Freiburg 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Berlin beat SC Freiburg 1-2 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.30 xG and Union Berlin 0.93 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SC Freiburg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Union Berlin outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.18 / defence 0.79 against Union Berlin attack 0.84 / defence 1.28, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 68% | Draw 18% | Union Berlin 14%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Union Berlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 63%, Union Berlin 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Union Berlin's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.40 PPG, Union Berlin 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.66 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights