SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 80% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees SC Paderborn 07 travel to Europa-Park Stadion to take on SC Freiburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 January 2027, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Freiburg stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Europa-Park Stadion, SC Freiburg have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
SC Freiburg are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for SC Freiburg, 0 for SC Paderborn 07 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with SC Freiburg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
SC Freiburg trading profile (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 60% versus SC Paderborn 07 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 65% | SC Paderborn 07 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.87 xG and SC Paderborn 07 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.405 / defence 0.843 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.576 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.950 / away 1.484. SC Freiburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.405 — their λ of 2.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 SC Freiburg games / 3 SC Paderborn 07 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 80% | Draw 14% | SC Paderborn 07 6%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.25 | Draw 7.14 | SC Paderborn 07 16.67. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (80%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.59 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SC Freiburg 70% | SC Paderborn 07 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 80% | Draw 14% | SC Paderborn 07 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 49% | xG SC Freiburg 2.87 / SC Paderborn 07 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.405 / def 0.843 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.576 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.950 / away 1.484 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.87
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
0.72
SC Paderborn 07 xG
49%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07 is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Europa-Park Stadion.
Where is SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 80% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 6% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SC Freiburg and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (1 meetings): SC Freiburg 1W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 0W.
What form are SC Freiburg and SC Paderborn 07 in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Freiburg's attack at 1.41x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 2.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
80%
1.24
14%
7.30
6%
17.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.87
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.59
0.72
SC Paderborn 07 xG
1.24
80%
Home win
7.30
14%
Draw
17.09
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
6%
17.57
Win to Nil
39%
2.55
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 2.87 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 0.72 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Freiburg come into this having played 37 games, going 16W 8D 13L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.70 PPG from 37 outings (18W 9D 10L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.51 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
SC Freiburg's home form reads 11W 5D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — SC Freiburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.58 points per game from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.57 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 16W 8D 13L in their last 37 games (1.51 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 18W 9D 10L in their last 37 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Freiburg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 2.00 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and SC Paderborn 07 runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
0
Draws
0
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and SC Paderborn 07?
From 1 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, SC Paderborn 07 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 0-1 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 79%, SC Paderborn 07 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for SC Freiburg and 47% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 47%; SC Paderborn 07 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of SC Freiburg's games and 42% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of SC Freiburg's matches and 47% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do SC Freiburg and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.