SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees SC Paderborn 07 travel to Europa-Park Stadion to take on SC Freiburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 January 2027, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Freiburg stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Europa-Park Stadion, SC Freiburg have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
SC Freiburg are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for SC Freiburg, 0 for SC Paderborn 07 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with SC Freiburg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
SC Freiburg trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 64% and SC Paderborn 07 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 69% | SC Paderborn 07 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.09 xG and SC Paderborn 07 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.221 / defence 1.001 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.628 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.898 / away 1.375. Data: 42 SC Freiburg games / 8 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 65% | Draw 21% | SC Paderborn 07 14%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | SC Paderborn 07 7.14. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 80% | SC Paderborn 07 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 65% | Draw 21% | SC Paderborn 07 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 51% | xG SC Freiburg 2.09 / SC Paderborn 07 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.221 / def 1.001 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.628 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.898 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
0.86
SC Paderborn 07 xG
51%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07 is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Europa-Park Stadion.
Where is SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 65% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SC Freiburg and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (1 meetings): SC Freiburg 1W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 0W.
What form are SC Freiburg and SC Paderborn 07 in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Freiburg's attack at 1.22x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
65%
1.53
21%
4.83
14%
7.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.95
0.86
SC Paderborn 07 xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
7.09
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
12%
8.06
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
2%
57.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 0.86 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Freiburg come into this having played 42 games, going 18W 9D 15L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.69 PPG from 42 outings (20W 11D 11L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.50 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
SC Freiburg's home form reads 12W 5D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — SC Freiburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.52 points per game from 21 outings (8W 8D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.52 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 18W 9D 15L in their last 42 games (1.50 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 20W 11D 11L in their last 42 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.95 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.52 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and SC Paderborn 07 runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
0
Draws
0
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and SC Paderborn 07?
From 1 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, SC Paderborn 07 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 0-1 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 81%, SC Paderborn 07 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for SC Freiburg and 48% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 48%; SC Paderborn 07 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of SC Freiburg's games and 43% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of SC Freiburg's matches and 48% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do SC Freiburg and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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