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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out Holstein Kiel 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Freiburg beat Holstein Kiel 3-2 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.62 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.20 xG, a combined 3.81. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Holstein Kiel outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.10 / defence 0.94 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.85 / defence 1.38, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 66% | Draw 20% | Holstein Kiel 14%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 65%, Holstein Kiel 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.35 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights