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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 16

Kick-off

Sat 11 Jan 2025

14:30

Venue

Europa-Park Stadion

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

SC Freiburg Win

66%

SC Freiburg

1.51

20%

Draw

5.12

14%

Holstein Kiel

7.11

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.0%

Home win

Most likely

3 – 1

7.9%

Home win

2 – 0

7.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.62

SC Freiburg xG

Total xG

3.81

1.20

Holstein Kiel xG

66%
20%
14%
SC FreiburgDrawHolstein Kiel

1.51

66%

Home win

5.12

20%

Draw

7.11

14%

Away win

Goals Markets

89%

Over 1.5

1.12

11%

Under 1.5

9.09

73%

Over 2.5

1.37

27%

Under 2.5

3.70

53%

Over 3.5

1.89

47%

Under 3.5

2.13

33%

Over 4.5

3.03

67%

Under 4.5

1.49

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

66%

BTTS Yes

1.51

34%

BTTS No

2.95

Clean Sheet

30%

SC Freiburg

3.31

7%

Holstein Kiel

13.67

Win to Nil

20%

SC Freiburg

4.99

1%

Holstein Kiel

97.21

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.2 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.2
1 5.8 6.9 4.1 1.7 0.5 0.1
2 7.6 9.0 5.4 2.2 0.6 0.2
3 6.6 7.9 4.7 1.9 0.6 0.1
4 4.3 5.2 3.1 1.2 0.4 0.1
5 2.3 2.7 1.6 0.6 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.615
λ Away (xG) 1.198
Total xG 3.813
League avg home goals 1.725
League avg away goals 1.506
SC Freiburg attack strength 1.099
SC Freiburg defence strength 0.935
Holstein Kiel attack strength 0.851
Holstein Kiel defence strength 1.380
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 49 / 15