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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out FC St. Pauli 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Freiburg beat FC St. Pauli 2-1 at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.55 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.02 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.03 / defence 1.01 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.69 / defence 0.91, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 49% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 25%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 65%, FC St. Pauli 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights