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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out 1. FC Heidenheim 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Freiburg beat 1. FC Heidenheim 2-1 at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.00 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.09 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.74 / defence 1.13, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 59% | Draw 21% | 1. FC Heidenheim 20%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 65%, 1. FC Heidenheim 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.73. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights