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Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Freiburg beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.47 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.55 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SC Freiburg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. 1. FC Heidenheim landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.10 / defence 1.03 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.07 / defence 1.27, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 58% | Draw 19% | 1. FC Heidenheim 23%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 67%, 1. FC Heidenheim 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.33 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights