SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 64% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg meet at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 March 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Freiburg have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Freiburg's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Europa-Park Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for SC Freiburg, 1.80 for FC Augsburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SC Freiburg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FC Augsburg in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across 10 previous meetings, SC Freiburg are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 2, with 2 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SC Freiburg and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 60% and FC Augsburg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Freiburg 66% | FC Augsburg 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.77 xG and FC Augsburg 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.374 / defence 0.864 | FC Augsburg attack 1.217 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 2.006 / away 1.400. SC Freiburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.374 — their λ of 2.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Augsburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.217 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 SC Freiburg games / 38 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 64% | Draw 17% | FC Augsburg 18%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.56 | Draw 5.88 | FC Augsburg 5.56. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (64%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.24. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.24 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.77 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 64% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 4.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 80% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 70% | FC Augsburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 64% | Draw 17% | FC Augsburg 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 73% | xG SC Freiburg 2.77 / FC Augsburg 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.374 / def 0.864 | FC Augsburg attack 1.217 / def 1.005 | league avg home 2.006 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.77
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.47
FC Augsburg xG
73%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg kick off?
SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Europa-Park Stadion.
Where is SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg part of?
SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 64% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 18% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg?
Record (10 meetings): SC Freiburg 6W | Draws 2 | FC Augsburg 2W.
What form are SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. FC Augsburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SC Freiburg's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.77. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (1.22x) against SC Freiburg's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.1%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.5%), 1-1 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
64%
1.55
17%
5.73
18%
5.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
2 – 2
6.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.77
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
4.24
1.47
FC Augsburg xG
1.55
64%
Home win
5.73
17%
Draw
5.51
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.64
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
6%
15.93
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
1%
87.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.77 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.47 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 4.24.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 16W 9D 13L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Augsburg's form line: 14W 8D 16L from 38 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.32 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 2.00 PPG from 19 outings (11W 5D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — SC Freiburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 6W 2D 11L from 19 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.47 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 16W 9D 13L in their last 38 games (1.50 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 14W 8D 16L in their last 38 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or FC Augsburg away?
SC Freiburg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 0-4 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
SC Freiburg
2
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-2 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for SC Freiburg, 68% for FC Augsburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for SC Freiburg and 74% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of SC Freiburg's games and 68% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of SC Freiburg's matches and 74% of FC Augsburg's.
Do SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.