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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over SC Freiburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Augsburg beat SC Freiburg 1-3 at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.68 xG and FC Augsburg 1.45 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Augsburg outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.02 / defence 1.06 against FC Augsburg attack 0.90 / defence 0.99, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 42% | Draw 25% | FC Augsburg 32%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual FC Augsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 68%, FC Augsburg 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.62 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights