SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Freiburg host Eintracht Frankfurt at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Freiburg's home record at Europa-Park Stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
SC Freiburg carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Eintracht Frankfurt have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 10 encounters against SC Freiburg's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 60% and Eintracht Frankfurt 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Freiburg 66% | Eintracht Frankfurt 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.91 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.376 / defence 0.848 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.254 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 2.023 / away 1.473. SC Freiburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.376 — their λ of 2.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Eintracht Frankfurt have an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 SC Freiburg games / 38 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 65% | Draw 17% | Eintracht Frankfurt 18%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.54 | Draw 5.88 | Eintracht Frankfurt 5.56. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (65%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.91 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Eintracht Frankfurt lead the H2H ledger, but SC Freiburg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.47 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 82% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 75%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 70% | Eintracht Frankfurt 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 65% | Draw 17% | Eintracht Frankfurt 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 75% | xG SC Freiburg 2.91 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.376 / def 0.848 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.254 / def 1.045 | league avg home 2.023 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.91
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
75%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Europa-Park Stadion.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 65% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 18% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (10 meetings): SC Freiburg 1W | Draws 5 | Eintracht Frankfurt 4W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SC Freiburg's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Frankfurt's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.91. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.5%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.3%), 2-2 (5.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
65%
1.54
17%
6.02
18%
5.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
2 – 2
5.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.91
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
4.47
1.57
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
1.54
65%
Home win
6.02
17%
Draw
5.45
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.00
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
5%
18.34
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
1%
99.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.5%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 2.91 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.57 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 4.47.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 16W 9D 13L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form line: 12W 13D 13L from 38 games, 1.29 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.50 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 2.00 PPG from 19 outings (11W 5D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — SC Freiburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 5W 8D 6L from 19 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.84 scored and 1.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 76%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Early Season
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 16W 9D 13L in their last 38 games (1.50 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 12W 13D 13L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
SC Freiburg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 2.00 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2025, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
5
Draws
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Freiburg at 79%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 90%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for SC Freiburg and 74% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 63% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of SC Freiburg's games and 90% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of SC Freiburg's matches and 74% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.