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Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Freiburg beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1 at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.76 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.94 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.03 / defence 0.84 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.80 / defence 1.01, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 56% | Draw 26% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 19%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 66%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.52 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights