SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 34 as SC Freiburg welcome Borussia Dortmund to Europa-Park Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 May 2027 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Freiburg at Europa-Park Stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Borussia Dortmund have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Dortmund away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Borussia Dortmund's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of SC Freiburg's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SC Freiburg register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Borussia Dortmund in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Borussia Dortmund have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 8 of the last 10 encounters against SC Freiburg's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 0–4 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 63% versus Borussia Dortmund 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 66% | Borussia Dortmund 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.97 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.210 / defence 0.962 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.048 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.339. Data: 35 SC Freiburg games / 35 Borussia Dortmund games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 51% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 25%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Borussia Dortmund 4.00. SC Freiburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Borussia Dortmund (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 80% | Borussia Dortmund 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 51% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG SC Freiburg 1.97 / Borussia Dortmund 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.210 / def 0.962 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.048 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.939 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Borussia Dortmund xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Saturday 22 May 2027 at Europa-Park Stadion.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 51% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (10 meetings): SC Freiburg 1W | Draws 1 | Borussia Dortmund 8W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Freiburg's attack at 1.21x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.23
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.32
1.35
Borussia Dortmund xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
14%
7.20
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
4%
28.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.35 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 14W 8D 13L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 23W 7D 5L from 35 games, 2.17 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SC Freiburg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 2.06 PPG from 17 outings (10W 5D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — SC Freiburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 9W 5D 3L from 17 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.06 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Early Season
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 14W 8D 13L in their last 35 games (1.43 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 23W 7D 5L in their last 35 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
SC Freiburg's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 2.06 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.88 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
1
Draws
8
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Freiburg at 82%, Borussia Dortmund at 59%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for SC Freiburg and 53% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of SC Freiburg's games and 59% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of SC Freiburg's matches and 53% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.