🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Bayern München edge out SC Freiburg 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayern München beat SC Freiburg 2-3 at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.24 xG and Bayern München 2.21 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.00 / defence 0.96 against Bayern München attack 1.65 / defence 0.73, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 20% | Draw 20% | Bayern München 59%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 66%, Bayern München 85%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Bayern München's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.51. Form held, and they took the win. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayern München (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights