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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bayern München edge out SC Freiburg 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayern München beat SC Freiburg 1-2 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.49 xG and Bayern München 1.98 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.12 / defence 1.02 against Bayern München attack 1.33 / defence 0.75, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 29% | Draw 22% | Bayern München 49%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 67%, Bayern München 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Bayern München's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights