SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen make the trip to Europa-Park Stadion to face SC Freiburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 February 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Europa-Park Stadion, SC Freiburg have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. SC Freiburg's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Bayer Leverkusen's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SC Freiburg register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Bayer Leverkusen in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 10 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to SC Freiburg's 1, with 3 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.9 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2026, ended 1–2 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 64% and Bayer Leverkusen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Freiburg 69% | Bayer Leverkusen 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.74 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.215 / defence 1.020 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.102 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.916 / away 1.367. Data: 42 SC Freiburg games / 42 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 63% | Draw 17% | Bayer Leverkusen 20%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.59 | Draw 5.88 | Bayer Leverkusen 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (63%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.27. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.27 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.74 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Bayer Leverkusen lead the H2H ledger, but SC Freiburg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates SC Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 80% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 80% | Bayer Leverkusen 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 63% | Draw 17% | Bayer Leverkusen 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 73% | xG SC Freiburg 2.74 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.215 / def 1.020 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.102 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.916 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.74
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Bayer Leverkusen xG
73%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Europa-Park Stadion.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 63% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 20% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (10 meetings): SC Freiburg 1W | Draws 3 | Bayer Leverkusen 6W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (1.22) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.10x) against SC Freiburg's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.0%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.3%), 1-1 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
63%
1.59
17%
5.82
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
2 – 2
6.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.74
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
4.27
1.54
Bayer Leverkusen xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.82
17%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.76
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
6%
15.46
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
1%
77.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 2.74 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.54 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 4.27.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Freiburg come into this having played 42 games, going 18W 9D 15L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen sit at 1.71 PPG from 42 outings (21W 9D 12L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.71 for Bayer Leverkusen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SC Freiburg's home form reads 12W 5D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — SC Freiburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have taken 1.52 points per game from 21 outings (9W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.05 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 18W 9D 15L in their last 42 games (1.50 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 21W 9D 12L in their last 42 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.95 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-1 on 21 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
3
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 81% for SC Freiburg, 67% for Bayer Leverkusen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for SC Freiburg and 71% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of SC Freiburg's games and 67% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of SC Freiburg's matches and 71% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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