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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out 1899 Hoffenheim 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Freiburg beat 1899 Hoffenheim 3-2 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.73 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.26 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SC Freiburg beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.06 / defence 1.06 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.83 / defence 1.10, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 48% | Draw 25% | 1899 Hoffenheim 27%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 65%, 1899 Hoffenheim 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.38 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights