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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out 1. FC Köln 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Freiburg beat 1. FC Köln 2-1 at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.05 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.01 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.11 / defence 0.89 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.76 / defence 1.11, drawn from 52/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 60% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Köln 16%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 67%, 1. FC Köln 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Köln's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.52 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights