RB Leipzig 1-5 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Leipzig at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as RB Leipzig face VfL Wolfsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg make the trip to Red Bull Arena to face RB Leipzig in Bundesliga (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Saturday 30 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
RB Leipzig (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, RB Leipzig have posted 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
VfL Wolfsburg have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
VfL Wolfsburg's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for RB Leipzig, 1.50 for VfL Wolfsburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, RB Leipzig edge it 4 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Apr 2024, ended RB Leipzig 3–0 VfL Wolfsburg — a RB Leipzig win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
RB Leipzig goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
VfL Wolfsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RB Leipzig 58% and VfL Wolfsburg 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 62% | VfL Wolfsburg 60%). Note also that VfL Wolfsburg surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while RB Leipzig recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 1.54 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 0.992 / defence 0.681 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.161 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.401. RB Leipzig have a tight defence (rating 0.681), which is pulling VfL Wolfsburg's projected output down. Data: built from RB Leipzig's last 45 games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 45.
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 44% | Draw 31% | VfL Wolfsburg 25%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 2.25 | Draw 3.23 | VfL Wolfsburg 4.06. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Leipzig are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: RB Leipzig 30% (last 10 home games) | VfL Wolfsburg 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 12 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 44% | Draw 31% | VfL Wolfsburg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG RB Leipzig 1.54 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 0.992 / def 0.681 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.161 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
1.11
VfL Wolfsburg xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg FAQs
What time does RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg?
RB Leipzig 1 - 5 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 12) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 44% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from RB Leipzig's attack rating (0.99) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfL Wolfsburg's attack (1.16x) against RB Leipzig's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from RB Leipzig's last 45 games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
44%
2.25
31%
3.23
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
2.65
1.11
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
5%
18.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 1.11 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RB Leipzig's recent record stands at 25W 11D 9L from 45 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five.
VfL Wolfsburg, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 21L across 45 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours RB Leipzig by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VfL Wolfsburg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, RB Leipzig have managed 14W 6D 2L from their last 22 home games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfL Wolfsburg's away record stands at 7W 4D 11L across their last 22 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RB Leipzig are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.36 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg in 64%.
Defensively: RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
RB Leipzig (Home) vs VfL Wolfsburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RB Leipzig
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg Form FAQs
What form are RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 25W 11D 9L in their last 45 games (1.91 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 14W 10D 21L in their last 45 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
RB Leipzig's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 2.18 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.14 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 15 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfL Wolfsburg won RB Leipzig 1-5 VfL Wolfsburg on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Leipzig have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
RB Leipzig
1
Draws
3
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, RB Leipzig have won 6, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2026: RB Leipzig 2-2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 41%, VfL Wolfsburg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (RB Leipzig) and 54% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; VfL Wolfsburg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of RB Leipzig's recent matches and 54% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of RB Leipzig's recent games and 54% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of RB Leipzig's recent matches and 82% of VfL Wolfsburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfL Wolfsburg run riot with a 1-5 hammering of RB Leipzig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat RB Leipzig 1-5 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 1.54 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.11 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg outscored their 1.11 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 0.99 / defence 0.68 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.16 / defence 0.94, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 44% | Draw 31% | VfL Wolfsburg 25%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a VfL Wolfsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 62%, VfL Wolfsburg 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with VfL Wolfsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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