🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as VfB Stuttgart defy the odds to beat RB Leipzig 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat RB Leipzig 2-3 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 1.78 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.58 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.20 / defence 0.94 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.13 / defence 0.97, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 42% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 34%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual VfB Stuttgart win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 61%, VfB Stuttgart 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RB Leipzig's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RB Leipzig 1.73 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights