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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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RB Leipzig cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SC Freiburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RB Leipzig beat SC Freiburg 2-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 2.45 xG and SC Freiburg 1.19 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SC Freiburg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.25 / defence 0.84 against SC Freiburg attack 0.98 / defence 1.13, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 64% | Draw 20% | SC Freiburg 16%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 57%, SC Freiburg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RB Leipzig's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RB Leipzig 1.63 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Leipzig win broke the near-deadlock. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights