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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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RB Leipzig and Holstein Kiel share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 30, as RB Leipzig and Holstein Kiel drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 2.54 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.26 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. RB Leipzig fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.23 / defence 0.93 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.95 / defence 1.39, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 65% | Draw 18% | Holstein Kiel 17%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 62%, Holstein Kiel 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RB Leipzig's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights