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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FSV Mainz 05 defy the odds to beat RB Leipzig 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FSV Mainz 05 beat RB Leipzig 1-2 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 2.30 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.28 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. RB Leipzig fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.22 / defence 0.97 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.90 / defence 1.15, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 59% | Draw 22% | FSV Mainz 05 19%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a FSV Mainz 05 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 57%, FSV Mainz 05 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RB Leipzig's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RB Leipzig 1.64 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights