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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FSV Mainz 05 defy the odds to beat RB Leipzig 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FSV Mainz 05 beat RB Leipzig 1-2 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 1.60 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.48 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.14 / defence 1.04 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.06 / defence 0.84, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 39% | Draw 27% | FSV Mainz 05 34%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual FSV Mainz 05 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 63%, FSV Mainz 05 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RB Leipzig's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with FSV Mainz 05 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights