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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as RB Leipzig edge out FC St. Pauli 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RB Leipzig beat FC St. Pauli 2-1 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 2.14 xG and FC St. Pauli 0.81 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.24 / defence 0.88 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.62 / defence 1.01, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 68% | Draw 20% | FC St. Pauli 13%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 62%, FC St. Pauli 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RB Leipzig's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights