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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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RB Leipzig and 1. FC Heidenheim share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RB Leipzig and 1. FC Heidenheim finished level at 2-2 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 2.34 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.32 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.17 / defence 0.99 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.00 / defence 1.20, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 59% | Draw 21% | 1. FC Heidenheim 20%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 62%, 1. FC Heidenheim 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RB Leipzig's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights