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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund finished level at 2-2 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 1.47 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.91 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.11 / defence 1.11 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.23 / defence 0.79, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 29% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 47%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 59%, Borussia Dortmund 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RB Leipzig's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RB Leipzig 1.62 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights