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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 23

Kick-off

Sat 21 Feb 2026

17:30

Venue

Red Bull Arena

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Borussia Dortmund Win

29%

RB Leipzig

3.46

24%

Draw

4.15

47%

Borussia Dortmund

2.12

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

9.5%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 2

9.1%

Away win

2 – 1

7.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.47

RB Leipzig xG

Total xG

3.38

1.91

Borussia Dortmund xG

29%
24%
47%
RB LeipzigDrawBorussia Dortmund

3.46

29%

Home win

4.15

24%

Draw

2.12

47%

Away win

Goals Markets

85%

Over 1.5

1.18

15%

Under 1.5

6.67

66%

Over 2.5

1.52

34%

Under 2.5

2.94

44%

Over 3.5

2.27

56%

Under 3.5

1.79

25%

Over 4.5

4.00

75%

Under 4.5

1.33

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

67%

BTTS Yes

1.50

33%

BTTS No

3.00

Clean Sheet

15%

RB Leipzig

6.77

23%

Borussia Dortmund

4.36

Win to Nil

4%

RB Leipzig

23.44

11%

Borussia Dortmund

9.27

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.4 6.5 6.2 3.9 1.9 0.7
1 5.0 9.5 9.1 5.8 2.8 1.1
2 3.7 7.0 6.7 4.3 2.0 0.8
3 1.8 3.5 3.3 2.1 1.0 0.4
4 0.7 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1
5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.473
λ Away (xG) 1.912
Total xG 3.385
League avg home goals 1.692
League avg away goals 1.396
RB Leipzig attack strength 1.108
RB Leipzig defence strength 1.110
Borussia Dortmund attack strength 1.233
Borussia Dortmund defence strength 0.786
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 56 / 56