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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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RB Leipzig cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Borussia Dortmund.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RB Leipzig beat Borussia Dortmund 2-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 2.07 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.33 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.16 / defence 1.03 against Borussia Dortmund attack 0.92 / defence 1.17, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 54% | Draw 23% | Borussia Dortmund 24%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 63%, Borussia Dortmund 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RB Leipzig's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RB Leipzig 1.76 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Leipzig win broke the near-deadlock. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights