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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 26

Kick-off

Sat 15 Mar 2025

17:30

Venue

Red Bull Arena

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

RB Leipzig Win

54%

RB Leipzig

1.86

23%

Draw

4.41

24%

Borussia Dortmund

4.23

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.5%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

9.2%

Draw

2 – 0

7.1%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.07

RB Leipzig xG

Total xG

3.41

1.33

Borussia Dortmund xG

54%
23%
24%
RB LeipzigDrawBorussia Dortmund

1.86

54%

Home win

4.41

23%

Draw

4.23

24%

Away win

Goals Markets

85%

Over 1.5

1.18

15%

Under 1.5

6.67

66%

Over 2.5

1.52

34%

Under 2.5

2.94

44%

Over 3.5

2.27

56%

Under 3.5

1.79

26%

Over 4.5

3.85

74%

Under 4.5

1.35

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

65%

BTTS Yes

1.53

35%

BTTS No

2.87

Clean Sheet

26%

RB Leipzig

3.80

13%

Borussia Dortmund

7.95

Win to Nil

14%

RB Leipzig

7.08

3%

Borussia Dortmund

33.65

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.3 4.4 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1
1 6.9 9.2 6.1 2.7 0.9 0.2
2 7.1 9.5 6.3 2.8 0.9 0.3
3 4.9 6.6 4.4 1.9 0.7 0.2
4 2.5 3.4 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1
5 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.073
λ Away (xG) 1.335
Total xG 3.408
League avg home goals 1.528
League avg away goals 1.402
RB Leipzig attack strength 1.158
RB Leipzig defence strength 1.033
Borussia Dortmund attack strength 0.922
Borussia Dortmund defence strength 1.171
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 59 / 59