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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Holstein Kiel and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 25, as Holstein Kiel and VfB Stuttgart drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.27 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.87 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.91 / defence 1.40 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.96 / defence 0.88, drawn from 24/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 25% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 50%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 64%, VfB Stuttgart 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights