Holstein Kiel 0-2 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Holstein Kiel vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 7 as Holstein Kiel welcome Union Berlin to Holstein-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 October 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Holstein Kiel — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Holstein Kiel have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Holstein Kiel's home record at Holstein-Stadion: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Berlin stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Union Berlin — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Holstein Kiel in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Holstein Kiel 58% versus Union Berlin 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 60% | Union Berlin 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 0.99 xG and Union Berlin 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.766 / defence 1.556 | Union Berlin attack 0.641 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.654. Holstein Kiel's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Union Berlin's defence strength of 0.777 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 6 Holstein Kiel games / 40 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 21% | Draw 27% | Union Berlin 51%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | Union Berlin 1.96. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Holstein Kiel 50% | Union Berlin 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 21% | Draw 27% | Union Berlin 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Holstein Kiel 0.99 / Union Berlin 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.766 / def 1.556 | Union Berlin attack 0.641 / def 0.777 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.654 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Union Berlin xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs Union Berlin kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs Union Berlin?
Holstein Kiel 0 - 2 Union Berlin.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs Union Berlin part of?
Holstein Kiel vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 21% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Holstein Kiel and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Holstein Kiel and Union Berlin in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Holstein Kiel's attack rating (0.77) and Union Berlin's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
21%
4.68
27%
3.66
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
2.64
1.65
Union Berlin xG
4.68
21%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
19%
5.20
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
4%
24.34
19%
5.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.65 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Holstein Kiel's recent record stands at 21W 7D 12L from 40 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 20L across 40 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Holstein Kiel by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Union Berlin heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Holstein Kiel have managed 9W 2D 9L from 20 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 2W 6D 12L across 20 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Holstein Kiel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 0.98 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Early Season
Union Berlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 21W 7D 12L in their last 40 games (1.75 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 12W 8D 20L in their last 40 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or Union Berlin away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.45 PPG; Union Berlin away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Holstein Kiel or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Holstein Kiel
0
Draws
1
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Union Berlin?
From 2 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 1, Union Berlin have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Union Berlin 0-1 Holstein Kiel.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Union Berlin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 65%, Union Berlin 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Holstein Kiel) and 30% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 65%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 30% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Holstein Kiel vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Holstein Kiel's recent games and 30% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Holstein Kiel and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Holstein Kiel.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Holstein Kiel 0-2 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 0.99 xG and Union Berlin 1.65 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Holstein Kiel fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.77 / defence 1.56 against Union Berlin attack 0.64 / defence 0.78, drawn from 6/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 21% | Draw 27% | Union Berlin 51%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 60%, Union Berlin 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Union Berlin's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Union Berlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.