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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out Holstein Kiel 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Freiburg beat Holstein Kiel 1-2 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.45 xG and SC Freiburg 1.73 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.98 / defence 1.44 against SC Freiburg attack 0.83 / defence 0.95, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 31% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 43%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 65%, SC Freiburg 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.41 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights