Holstein Kiel 1-0 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Holstein Kiel host 1. FC Heidenheim at Holstein-Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Holstein Kiel stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Holstein-Stadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
1. FC Heidenheim — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. 1. FC Heidenheim are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Holstein Kiel, 2 for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 0–3 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Holstein Kiel in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
1. FC Heidenheim in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 57% and 1. FC Heidenheim 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 60% | 1. FC Heidenheim 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.23 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 2.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.709 / defence 1.579 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.082 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.614. Holstein Kiel's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Holstein Kiel games / 42 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 13% | Draw 20% | 1. FC Heidenheim 68%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 7.69 | Draw 5.00 | 1. FC Heidenheim 1.47. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Heidenheim (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.23 / 2.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Heidenheim are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Holstein Kiel 50% | 1. FC Heidenheim 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 13% | Draw 20% | 1. FC Heidenheim 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 68% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.23 / 1. FC Heidenheim 2.76 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.709 / def 1.579 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.082 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.614 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (68%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
2.76
1. FC Heidenheim xG
68%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Holstein Kiel 1 - 0 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 13% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 68% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (4 meetings): Holstein Kiel 1W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Heidenheim 2W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Holstein Kiel's attack at 0.71x the league average against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Heidenheim's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 2.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-3 (8.0%), 1-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
13%
7.90
20%
5.06
68%
1.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
8.0%
Away win
0 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
3.98
2.76
1. FC Heidenheim xG
7.90
13%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
1.48
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
6%
15.74
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
1%
124.30
20%
5.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.9 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 2.76 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 3.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Holstein Kiel have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 21W 7D 14L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Heidenheim's form line: 13W 13D 16L from 42 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Holstein Kiel are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1. FC Heidenheim.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Holstein Kiel have posted 1.38 PPG from 21 outings (9W 2D 10L).
On the road, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 5W 7D 9L from 21 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.48 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Heidenheim in 64%.
Defensively: Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 21W 7D 14L in their last 42 games (1.67 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 13W 13D 16L in their last 42 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.38 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Holstein Kiel or 1. FC Heidenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Heidenheim runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when 1. FC Heidenheim won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Holstein Kiel's record when hosting 1. FC Heidenheim specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
3
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 6 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 2, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when 1. FC Heidenheim 3-1 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 62%, 1. FC Heidenheim 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Holstein Kiel) and 48% (1. FC Heidenheim).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Holstein Kiel's games and 67% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Holstein Kiel's recent games and 48% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Holstein Kiel defy the odds to beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.23 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 2.76 xG, a combined 3.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Heidenheim landed 2.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.71 / defence 1.58 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.08 / defence 1.08, drawn from 8/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 13% | Draw 20% | 1. FC Heidenheim 68%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Holstein Kiel win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 60%, 1. FC Heidenheim 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.