🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Holstein Kiel run riot with a 5-1 hammering of FC Augsburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Holstein Kiel beat FC Augsburg 5-1 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.02 xG and FC Augsburg 1.57 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Holstein Kiel beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.52 / defence 1.33 against FC Augsburg attack 0.79 / defence 1.17, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 22% | Draw 31% | FC Augsburg 47%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Holstein Kiel win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 60%, FC Augsburg 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.52 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Holstein Kiel win broke the near-deadlock. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights